Large-eruption rates of stratovolcanoes

The large-eruption rates of stratovolcanoes are modelled exchangeably, in order to derive an informative prior distribution as an input into a subsequent volcano-by-volcano hazard assessment. Derivation and implementation of the likelihood function is not straightforward, necessitating a detailed code verification. Analysis of the LaMEVE database suggests that most of the world’s stratovolcanoes are currently capable of producing large eruptions, but that the current largeeruption rate of active volcanoes with no recent record of eruptions is low, about 1.2 /kyr. The model is checked via a visual ‘Turing test’, and the paper concludes with some reflections on code verification and computation methods.